The era of big television series that much of the nation watched together—which lasted for more than three decades— is officially over, according to blip.tv CEO Mike Hudack, writing at newteevee.com:

Internet video is growing at a significant pace. It has not yet taken a chunk out of the broadcast and cable audiences, but the trend is there. Shows on the web are infinitely more targeted than the shows broadcast and cable companies deliver. There are shows for old Jews who like jokes. There are shows for every type of video game geek. There are shows for every audience you can imagine. There is, in fact, a web show made just for you (although you probably haven’t found it yet).

There will be “hit” shows on the web that have a profound influence on our culture. But they will not be the size of network television hits, or even cable television hits.

The business model for broadcast television, however, requires mass audiences, because of the very nature of the way broadcast TV uses spectrum; put simply, broadcast TV distribution is too expensive to waste on niche programming. Thus, Hudack argues, the TV broadcast networks will soon die off or be transformed into different kinds of program providers, as happened with radio:

Network television in the coming years will become more niche, but not niche enough. NBC’s 30 Rock is more targeted than almost anything carried on the network before. Its audience is only a couple million people larger than Mad Men‘s. But that’s not enough. Traditional broadcast and cable companies are not able to support shows under a certain size.

The broadcast distribution model, which dictates that only one show can air at any given time, makes it impossible for a niche show to thrive. The opportunity cost is too high. And the corporate structures, cost structures, business models and cultures of the network and cable companies make change far too difficult. Thus the Internet will do to broadcast and cable what cable did to broadcast. It’s inevitable. And it’s already beginning to happen.

Of course, Hudack has a vested interest in telling people that the death of television is imminent and that the smart set are all turning to web video purveyors such as Hudack’s blip.tv.

But there definitely has been a contraction in the broadcast TV audience, which has continued in the past decade. This contraction has happened in a rather unexpected way: night by night. First the networks found that there wasn’t a big enough audience on Saturday nights to justify producing new drama or situation comedy series; they programmed reruns, cheap reality shows, and some sporting events. Then Fridays started to erode, though not yet to the extent that no new dramas or sitcoms are being programmed, and now Thursdays are in decline as well.

Or are they?

As the Wall Street Journal reports:

Television is losing ground in one of its most lucrative strongholds: Thursday nights.

Fewer people in the U.S. are watching Thursday prime-time TV so far this fall, as changing viewing habits, weaker shows and more varied competition take a toll on a night that for decades has showcased some of TV’s most high-profile programs, and priciest commercials.

Over the first four Thursday nights of the TV season, an average of 48.5 million people between the ages of 18 and 49 years old were watching prime-time on any channel, broadcast or cable, recorded or live, according to Nielsen Co. estimates. That is down 2.2 million, or 4.3%, from a year earlier. Among all viewers, Thursday-night TV usage is down 1%. . . .

The potential cost is high. Marketers often pay higher rates for commercials on Thursday nights because weekends are big shopping times. It is advertisers’ last chance to hawk movie tickets, new cars, restaurants and retail products beforehand.

The drop could be the leading edge of a broader phenomenon. The number of people between 18 and 49 watching TV on any night of the week, on any channel, live or recorded, is down 2.7% so far this TV season compared with last.

The overall 1 percent decline doesn’t sound too terrifying to me, but I don’t own any TV networks. The WSJ article quotes an NBC TV executive as being very worried. Heck, I’d be worried all the time if I worked for NBC. Execs at Fox and CBS quoted in the Journal article were far more sanguine, saying a couple of hit shows would turn it all around. I suspect that they’re right.

Obviously broadcast TV is experiencing a long-term decline, but an accelerating dispersal of TV audiences into a highly fragmented Omniculture any time soon seems rather unlikely. In the meantime, audiences are enjoying greater diversity of programming. Let those who own TV networks worry about the fate of television, while the rest of us enjoy their loss of power and the rise of consumer choice.